France’s presidential campaign is officially underway, but many are warning that an election campaign that has been unlike any other could produce totally unexpected results.
Ten years ago it was considered unthinkable that a campaign could be dominated by open Islamophobia, but that is what has occurred in 2022. The lack of serious issues has turned off voters in record numbers.
Abstention is now expected to surpass the level set in the 2002 vote when the far-right National Front shockingly made it into the second round.
The lack of certainty about how many will actually vote reduces the reliability of polls.
Emmanuel Macron looks certain to make it to the second round, but if left-wing voters do not abstain or cast blank ballots in a common protest vote, Macron could be surprised to face the left’s Jean-Luc Melenchon. The French left is ignored by foreign media and has been left out by the far-right xenophobia of the previous months.
In addition to abstention, there is another issue, a record number of voters who still are not sure who they will vote for.
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It is not hyperbole to say that this is the most unpredictable election in recent memory. A stunning 40% of people who plan to vote are still undecided. That number is normally around just 25%.
French polling agencies are not just owned by politicians, they are staffed by ex-politicians at the highest levels. That has made them so not credible the nation’s largest newspaper has refused to run any election polls. The first-round vote is on April 10, and the final round is two weeks later.
