A U.S. Air Force general issued a memo instructing officers to prepare for a possible military conflict with China over Taiwan in 2025, a U.S. official confirmed to Nikkei.
Unusual memo reflects sense of urgency over Beijing’s intentions on the island
In the memo, sent Friday and obtained by NBC News, Gen. Mike Minihan said, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025.”
Minihan, head of Air Mobility Command, served as deputy commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from September 2019 to August 2021 and has a deep knowledge of the Chinese military.
Although the memo seems to reflect Minihan’s own personal view, it highlights the alarm felt on the U.S. side regarding Beijing’s intentions regarding Taiwan.
Asked about the memo, a defense official stressed that “these comments are not representative of the [Defense] Department’s view on China.”
Because the U.S. will have a presidential election in 2024, Washington will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan, Minihan said.
The general instructed building “a fortified, ready, integrated, and agile Joint Force Maneuver Team ready to fight and win inside the first island chain.” The first island chain stretches from Japan’s Okinawa islands and Taiwan to the Philippines.
The memo orders all air wing commanders in Air Mobility Command and other Air Force operational commanders to report preparation efforts to Minihan by the end of February.
In response to the memo, Defense Department press secretary Patrick Ryder issued a statement on Friday: “The National Defense Strategy makes clear that China is the pacing challenge for the Department of Defense and our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Concerns have been rising within the U.S. military about a possible Chinese attempt to unify with Taiwan by force.
Adm. Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, gave a potentially earlier timeline last fall.
“When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window,” told the Atlantic Council in October. While the comments were meant to stress that the U.S. military was ready to fight at any moment, they are widely believed to reflect U.S. concerns.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also made a similar observation around that time.
“A fundamental decision [has been made] that the status quo was no longer acceptable, and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification [with Taiwan] on a much faster timeline,” Blinken said.
