FG’s domestic borrowing to exceed N2.6 trillion in 2022

“It is now obvious that what drives the economy is the non-oil sector and that is where we will have to pay a lot of attention”

The Coronation Merchant Bank (CMB) has projected that the federal government’s domestic borrowings would exceed N2.6 trillion in 2022.

The premier investment bank also estimated that inflation and GDP growth rates would be 13.88% and 2.6% respectively this year.

The CMB added that the country might experience weak portfolio investment inflows due to negative real interest rates as the headline inflation rate remained in double digits.

These predictions were contained in its Economic Review and 2022 Outlook titled “Blend of Optimism and Uncertainty.”

The report was released yesterday during the virtual 4th edition of its Interactive Session Series themed “Nigeria’s Economic Landscape – a Blend of Optimism and Uncertainty.”

The CMB said: “Given the current elevated oil price, compared with the oil price benchmark in the 2022 budget, there might be room for the FGN to source funds for fuel subsidy from its windfall/savings. Overall, we expect the budget deficit this year to be higher than the current projection and that domestic borrowing could exceed N2.6 trillion. This implies upward pressure on FGN bonds and NTB yields.

“For 2022, we expect the impact of positive base effects on the headline inflation rate to wither away by the second quarter of the year. Looking ahead, on the back of specific factors which could result in upward pressure on prices, we have imposed visible fluctuations in the m/m inflation rate using a few assumptions. These include insecurity, modest exchange rate depreciation, hike in electricity prices, electioneering, and the possible N10 per liter excise duty imposed on non-alcoholic carbonated and sweetened beverages. We see average inflation for FY 2022 at 13.88 percent y/y and at 13.91 percent y/y at end-December 2022.”

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The report also disclosed that the consistent financial injections into selected sectors like agriculture, by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have assisted in keeping the nation’s economic activities afloat.

CMB also predicts that the expenses allocated to the 2023 elections will drive GDP growth.

“Looking ahead, overall pre-election expenditure towards the 2023 general elections should also contribute to the growth drive. For 2022, we expect a GDP growth of 2.6 percent y/y.”

Also speaking on the economic landscape, an economic expert, Biodun Adedipe said, “We have seen the pattern in the last 10 years of non-oil sectors accounting for between 77 and 82 percent in terms of contribution to our GDP, while the oil sector has repeatedly accounted for less than 10 percent. It is now obvious that what drives the economy is the non-oil sector and that is where we will have to pay a lot of attention.”

CMB is Africa’s premier investment bank, providing innovative solutions to the needs of corporations, governments, and other financial services organizations.

The merchant banks act as stockbrokers for primary issues, intermediating between new and existing clients and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in the process of capital raising while ensuring total compliance with listing regulations.