Sir Adam Thomson, the former British ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), noted in a note posted on his personal website in this note he explained the recent developments in the Caucasus, especially in Azerbaijan, and the possible strategies of NATO and other countries.
His note titled “NATO’s sweet dream on the shores of the Caspian Sea”
He wrote: The 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war ended on November 10 with the negligence of NATO members in the Minsk Group and Moscow’s opportunism in Russia’s interests, and an unstable peace based on vague agreements formed.
However, according to Resolution 243/62 of the UN General Assembly, Armenia forcibly ceded Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. But the shadow of ethnic unrest and territorial war still weighs on the South Caucasus.
With the expansion of the Russian and Turkish military presence in the South Caucasus and the establishment of a new military base in Nagorno-Karabakh by Moscow and Ankara under the auspices of peace; The security balance in the region is upset.
As the guardian of lasting international peace, NATO has always been at odds with Russia. Azerbaijan has launched an operation with NATO in the form of “Individual Partnership for Peace”. On behalf of NATO, Turkey has rebuilt the military structure and equipment of Azerbaijan in accordance with NATO standards.
Although Baku is not yet an official member of NATO, as one of NATO’s serious allies in the region, it is of great importance to the Western bloc. Russia’s direct involvement, especially of Russian troops, in the South Caucasus, would be unacceptable to NATO.
Turkey has made great efforts over the past 15 years to organize the Azerbaijani army under NATO supervision. The territorial connection of Turkey to Azerbaijan will result in NATO’s direct land access to the shores of the Caspian Sea, and NATO’s deployment to the Caspian coast has always been one of its dream strategies.
Territorial extension and NATO deployment on the Caspian coast by land have always been part of NATO’s unattainable strategies. NATO access to the Caspian coast is a valuable goal that requires careful planning and management.
NATO supports any stabilizing action in the region. NATO will strongly support Azerbaijan’s negotiations with Armenia on territorial swaps and the annexation of Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan. And it sees it as a positive step forward for NATO strategies.
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Of course, Yerevan’s waiver of its border with Iran will be very painful and deadly, which requires attractive guarantees and incentives to Armenia. If Nakhchivan is connected to Azerbaijan by land – in any possible way – everything will be ready for NATO to agree to Azerbaijan’s request to join NATO as soon as possible.
Azerbaijan’s accession to NATO (subject to territorial connection to NATO via Turkey) will be a dreamy step by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in implementing NATO’s eastward expansion strategy. NATO deployment on the western shores of the Caspian Sea will mean NATO’s neighborhood with Iran and the completion of the Russian siege from the south of the country.
With this development, NATO would only have one step left to reach the Chinese borders, and this will be complemented by Kazakhstan’s accession to NATO.
With US support under NATO auspices, Britain could easily impose its strategic dominance on the shores of Baku, Tehran, and Moscow. The strategic negligence of NATO members in the Minsk Group in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war has caused Russia to establish a strong barrier against NATO expansion, but this negligence was offset by the territorial annexation of Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan and could be NATO’s winner in strategic competition with Moscow and Tehran in the South Caucasus.
I urge the Prime Minister (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom) to do his utmost at this critical juncture in history to take the final step towards completing the 15-year NATO project. London, with the participation of the United States and the European Union in the form of NATO, must support Azerbaijan’s will to annex territory to Nakhchivan. With the annexation of Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan and the accession of Baku to NATO, the dream of NATO expansion to the Chinese border will be achievable.
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